You could make a case that there is some luck involved in getting to the second stage of the Verhoeven Open. This is how you would argue: "Look at the general average of the fifteen flights. In group B, for example, the "Patino" group, an unimpressive average of 0.581 was played by the seven participants. Flight K on the other hand, the "Haeng Jik Kim" group, had a combined average of 0.903. So clearly, there are easy groups and difficult groups.
And you would go on to point out that the very short distance of 25 points on the first days increases the chances for weaker players to beat stronger players.
As if you had not done enough, you would add that the table conditions, splendid as they may be, also contribute to the "luck" factor. "It's long, it's slippery. If you have some positions to work with, you are okay, But if the other guy is a bit lucky with his defense, you'll sometimes have four or five innings where you can't possibly score. "
Do you like these three arguments? They are correct, half correct and incorrect.
The first one, obviously, makes sense. You don't want four good players in your flight, when only two can advance. The second argument is quite a bit weaker, because the short distance could also prove to be to your advantage. If you are a 1.000 average player in a group with several 0.800 guys, then you would feel more secure with matches to 40. If you are a 0.800 guy in a group with several 1.000 players, you'll applaud the 25 points. It's all a matter of perspective.
The third argument is no good. The fact that the tables are long and slippery is a problem for everyone. The more skillful the player, the better he'll handle it. And as for (the luck of) unintended defense? That happens on every table, long, short, fast, slow, new, old.
Those six adjectives also apply to your opponents, by the way. Tall guys, short guys, fast players, slow players. One that was best man at Bush sr.'s wedding, one too young to remember Bush junior.
Here's the funny thing about that first qualification stage in New York: the best players always advance. Yes, sometimes a smaller fish survives and also makes it to the Thursday and Friday. But you never see a real quality player (1.2 and up) go home midweek.
So the luck factor, often debated, is much smaller than most people think. The format that is used in NY actually does a better job of selecting the best players than the World Cup format does. World Cups use seeding based on the world ranking, and a ranking below 100th place says little or nothing about your playing strength.
The six or seven matches you have to play in NY, will almost always separate the men from the boys. If you want a career in billiards, forget the luck of your draw. Focus on the merit of your follow-through instead.